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 probabilistic guarantee


Scaling Data-Driven Probabilistic Robustness Analysis for Semantic Segmentation Neural Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Semantic segmentation neural networks (SSNs) are increasingly essential in highstakes fields such as medical imaging, autonomous driving, and environmental monitoring, where robustness to input uncertainties and adversarial examples is crucial for ensuring safety and reliability. However, traditional probabilistic verification methods struggle to scale effectively with the size and depth of modern SSNs, especially when dealing with their high-dimensional, structured inputs/outputs. As the output dimension increases, these methods tend to become overly conservative, resulting in unnecessarily restrictive safety guarantees. In this work, we propose a probabilistic, data-driven verification algorithm that is architecture-agnostic and scalable, capable of handling the high-dimensional outputs of SSNs without introducing conservative and loose guarantees. We leverage efficient sampling-based reachability analysis to explore the space of possible outputs while maintaining computational feasibility.


Stable GFlowNets with Probabilistic Guarantees

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) learn to sample states proportional to an unnormalized reward. Despite their theoretical promise, practical training is often unstable, exhibiting severe loss spikes and mode collapse. To tackle this, we first assess the sensitivity of GFlowNet objectives, demonstrating that a small Total Variation (TV) distance between the learned and target distributions does not preclude unbounded training loss. Motivated by this mismatch, we establish converse guarantees by deriving loss-to-TV bounds that certify global fidelity from bounded trajectory balance losses. Lastly, we propose Stable GFlowNets, an algorithm that leverages our theoretical results to stabilize training, and empirically demonstrate improved training behavior and superior distributional fidelity.


Pick-to-Learn for Systems and Control: Data-driven Synthesis with State-of-the-art Safety Guarantees

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data-driven methods have become paramount in modern systems and control problems characterized by growing levels of complexity . In safety-critical environments, deploying these methods requires rigorous guarantees, a need that has motivated much recent work at the interface of statistical learning and control. However, many existing approaches achieve this goal at the cost of sacrificing valuable data for testing and calibration, or by constraining the choice of learning algorithm, thus leading to suboptimal performances. In this paper, we describe Pick-to-Learn (P2L) for Systems and Control, a framework that allows any data-driven control method to be equipped with state-of-the-art safety and performance guarantees. P2L enables the use of all available data to jointly synthesize and certify the design, eliminating the need to set aside data for calibration or validation purposes. In presenting a comprehensive version of P2L for systems and control, this paper demonstrates its effectiveness across a range of core problems, including optimal control, reachability analysis, safe synthesis, and robust control. In many of these applications, P2L delivers designs and certificates that outperform commonly employed methods, and shows strong potential for broad applicability in diverse practical settings.


On the Probabilistic Learnability of Compact Neural Network Preimage Bounds

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Although recent provable methods have been developed to compute preimage bounds for neural networks, their scalability is fundamentally limited by the #P-hardness of the problem. In this work, we adopt a novel probabilistic perspective, aiming to deliver solutions with high-confidence guarantees and bounded error. To this end, we investigate the potential of bootstrap-based and randomized approaches that are capable of capturing complex patterns in high-dimensional spaces, including input regions where a given output property holds. In detail, we introduce $\textbf{R}$andom $\textbf{F}$orest $\textbf{Pro}$perty $\textbf{Ve}$rifier ($\texttt{RF-ProVe}$), a method that exploits an ensemble of randomized decision trees to generate candidate input regions satisfying a desired output property and refines them through active resampling. Our theoretical derivations offer formal statistical guarantees on region purity and global coverage, providing a practical, scalable solution for computing compact preimage approximations in cases where exact solvers fail to scale.


pacSTL: PAC-Bounded Signal Temporal Logic from Data-Driven Reachability Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Real-world robotic systems must comply with safety requirements in the presence of uncertainty. To define and measure requirement adherence, Signal Temporal Logic (STL) offers a mathematically rigorous and expressive language. However, standard STL cannot account for uncertainty. We address this problem by presenting pacSTL, a framework that combines Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) bounded set predictions with an interval extension of STL through optimization problems on the atomic proposition level. pacSTL provides PAC-bounded robustness intervals on the specification level that can be utilized in monitoring. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach through maritime navigation and analyze the efficiency and scalability of pacSTL through simulation and real-world experimentation on model vessels.


RepV: Safety-Separable Latent Spaces for Scalable Neurosymbolic Plan Verification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As AI systems migrate to safety-critical domains, verifying that their actions comply with well-defined rules remains a challenge. Formal methods provide provable guarantees but demand hand-crafted temporal-logic specifications, offering limited expressiveness and accessibility. Deep learning approaches enable evaluation of plans against natural-language constraints, yet their opaque decision process invites misclassifications with potentially severe consequences. We introduce RepV, a neurosymbolic verifier that unifies both views by learning a latent space where safe and unsafe plans are linearly separable. Starting from a modest seed set of plans labeled by an off-the-shelf model checker, RepV trains a lightweight projector that embeds each plan, together with a language model-generated rationale, into a low-dimensional space; a frozen linear boundary then verifies compliance for unseen natural-language rules in a single forward pass. Beyond binary classification, RepV provides a probabilistic guarantee on the likelihood of correct verification based on its position in the latent space. This guarantee enables a guarantee-driven refinement of the planner, improving rule compliance without human annotations. Empirical evaluations show that RepV improves compliance prediction accuracy by up to 15% compared to baseline methods while adding fewer than 0.2M parameters. Furthermore, our refinement framework outperforms ordinary fine-tuning baselines across various planning domains. These results show that safety-separable latent spaces offer a scalable, plug-and-play primitive for reliable neurosymbolic plan verification. Code and data are available at: https://repv-project.github.io/.


Overfitting in Adaptive Robust Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Adaptive robust optimization (ARO) extends static robust optimization by allowing decisions to depend on the realized uncertainty - weakly dominating static solutions within the modeled uncertainty set. However, ARO makes previous constraints that were independent of uncertainty now dependent, making it vulnerable to additional infeasibilities when realizations fall outside the uncertainty set. This phenomenon of adaptive policies being brittle is analogous to overfitting in machine learning. To mitigate against this, we propose assigning constraint-specific uncertainty set sizes, with harder constraints given stronger probabilistic guarantees. Interpreted through the overfitting lens, this acts as regularization: tighter guarantees shrink adaptive coefficients to ensure stability, while looser ones preserve useful flexibility. This view motivates a principled approach to designing uncertainty sets that balances robustness and adaptivity.


Reachability Barrier Networks: Learning Hamilton-Jacobi Solutions for Smooth and Flexible Control Barrier Functions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent developments in autonomous driving and robotics underscore the necessity of safety-critical controllers. Control barrier functions (CBFs) are a popular method for appending safety guarantees to a general control framework, but they are notoriously difficult to generate beyond low dimensions. Existing methods often yield non-differentiable or inaccurate approximations that lack integrity, and thus fail to ensure safety. In this work, we use physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to generate smooth approximations of CBFs by computing Hamilton-Jacobi (HJ) optimal control solutions. These reachability barrier networks (RBNs) avoid traditional dimensionality constraints and support the tuning of their conservativeness post-training through a parameterized discount term. To ensure robustness of the discounted solutions, we leverage conformal prediction methods to derive probabilistic safety guarantees for RBNs. We demonstrate that RBNs are highly accurate in low dimensions, and safer than the standard neural CBF approach in high dimensions. Namely, we showcase the RBNs in a 9D multi-vehicle collision avoidance problem where it empirically proves to be 5.5x safer and 1.9x less conservative than the neural CBFs, offering a promising method to synthesize CBFs for general nonlinear autonomous systems.


From Data to Uncertainty Sets: a Machine Learning Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Existing approaches of prescriptive analytics -- where inputs of an optimization model can be predicted by leveraging covariates in a machine learning model -- often attempt to optimize the mean value of an uncertain objective. However, when applied to uncertain constraints, these methods rarely work because satisfying a crucial constraint in expectation may result in a high probability of violation. To remedy this, we leverage robust optimization to protect a constraint against the uncertainty of a machine learning model's output. To do so, we design an uncertainty set based on the model's loss function. Intuitively, this approach attempts to minimize the uncertainty around a prediction. Extending guarantees from the robust optimization literature, we derive strong guarantees on the probability of violation. On synthetic computational experiments, our method requires uncertainty sets with radii up to one order of magnitude smaller than those of other approaches.


Efficient Precision Control in Object Detection Models for Enhanced and Reliable Ovarian Follicle Counting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Image analysis is a key tool for describing the detailed mechanisms of folliculogenesis, such as evaluating the quantity of mouse Primordial ovarian Follicles (PMF) in the ovarian reserve. The development of high-resolution virtual slide scanners offers the possibility of quantifying, robustifying and accelerating the histopathological procedure. A major challenge for machine learning is to control the precision of predictions while enabling a high recall, in order to provide reproducibility. We use a multiple testing procedure that gives an overperforming way to solve the standard Precision-Recall trade-off that gives probabilistic guarantees on the precision. In addition, we significantly improve the overall performance of the models (increase of F1-score) by selecting the decision threshold using contextual biological information or using an auxiliary model. As it is model-agnostic, this contextual selection procedure paves the way to the development of a strategy that can improve the performance of any model without the need of retraining it.